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Recession Talk Grows Louder in US as Economic Dowturn Expected 'in Months'_我的网站

A |     8月25日消息，近日一名Reddit玩家展示了他的硬核改装方案，通过旧款联想笔记本唯一的M.2接口外接桌面级显卡RX 7900 XT，实现了本地运行270亿参数大模型的目标。

B |     Growing concerns over rampant inflation and an aggressive use of classic monetary tools by the US central bank have fanned fears of recession across Wall Street and in Washington, reported Politico.,President Joe Biden may have insisted that “there’s nothing inevitable” about a US recession, but repeating that mantra is unlikely to make it a reality, claim analysts. Accordingly, Wall Street is increasingly building the gloomy possibility of recession into its forecasts.,A “brief yet shallow” recession could start in the last three months of the year, according to Dana Peterson, the chief economist at The Conference Board, speaking at a “Women Rule” event cited by Politico.,Michael Feroli, the chief US economist at JPMorgan Chase, believes that a downturn could start as soon as this quarter, as he pointed to consumer beginning to slow.,“Things are looking like we’re losing altitude pretty quickly,” he was cited as saying.,Fed's Anti-Inflation Tactic Unhelpful, Should Focus on Supply Chains, Economist Says2 July, 18:53 GMT,A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. This is made official when confirmed by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The bureau defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”,US Markets Lost up to 30% This Year Amid Soaring Inflation, Fuel Prices, Sanctions Backlash1 July, 16:59 GMT,The US government confirmed last week that the economy shrank in the first three months of the year. The US Commerce Department has revised its reading on first-quarter GDP down from an initial print for a 1.5% drop, showing a 1.6% contraction. The Atlanta Fed’s economic growth tracker pointed to the increased chances of a second-quarter contraction.,Fed Chair: Recession 'a Possibility',Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, Jerome Powell, weighed in on the current economic volatility on June 29. Speaking at a European Central Bank forum held in Portugal, he said that one way to fight inflation was to slow growth while keeping it positive.,"Is there a risk that would go too far? Certainly, there's a risk. I wouldn't agree that it's the biggest risk to the economy. The bigger mistake to make ... would be to fail to restore price stability," Powell said,Earlier, addressing the Senate Banking Committee a week after the Fed ordered the largest interest rate increase since 1994 in response to a four-decade inflation high of 8.6% in May, Powell said:,"We need to get inflation back down to 2%. We're using our tools to do that.”,The Fed Chair acknowledged that the current data pointed to the risk of an economic slowdown.,"It's certainly a possibility. It's not our intended outcome at all but it's certainly a possibility. We're not trying to provoke — and don't think that we will need to provoke — a recession… But we do think it's absolutely essential that we restore price stability, really for the benefit of the labor market as much as anything else.",After the Fed maintained interest rates near zero for the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, now it has implemented aggressive monetary tools historically used to lower inflated consumer prices.,The Fed raised interest rates since March, bringing them to a high of 1.75% - the largest since 1994. The central bank has said it will continue with its hikes till current inflation of more than 8% returns to its target of 2% per annum. However, the policy has failed to make a dent in inflation.,Furthermore, coupled with price spikes, the moves sent the benchmark S&P 500 stock index plummeting to its worst performance in the first half of the year since 1970.,President Joe Biden has publicly backed Powell’s efforts. In a sit-down interview with the Associated Press, Biden reiterated that the US was “in a stronger position than any nation in the world to overcome this inflation,” and also said a US recession is “not inevitable.”,However, troubles driven by the coronavirus pandemic recovery, such as soaring inflation as far back as in November 2021, were exacerbated in 2022. Amid growing oil, gas and fuel prices, the economic woes were further worsened by the self-inflicted aftershock of anti-Russia sanctions, implemented over Moscow’s special military operation in Ukraine.,US Consumer Sentiment at New Record Low Amid Runaway Inflation - UMich Poll24 June, 20:23 GMT,Amid this foreboding, Bien’s administration is bracing for recession, despite some Democrats still clinging to optimistic forecasts.,“A recession would be really problematic for the American people. Boy, are we ever a long way from a recession though,” Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) said in an interview.,However, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., warned that the Fed’s increase in borrowing costs could trigger layoffs.,"You know what's worse than high inflation and low unemployment? It's high inflation and a recession with millions of people out of work. I hope you'll reconsider that, before you drive this economy off a cliff," Warren stated.,A White House official was cited as acknowledging that the economy faces a range of global risks, but touted the country’s economic strengths. The strong labor market, consumer spending and business investment all “position us well – better than almost any other country – to build on our strong economic foundation and transition to steady, stable growth, with lower inflation,” the source was cited by Politico as saying.。     由于这台笔记本仅有一个M.2接口，该玩家通过一根M.2-to-PCIe转接延长线，成功外接RX 7900 XT显卡，为此他不得不拆除内部固态硬盘，并将Windows系统安装在外部移动硬盘上通过USB启动。    显卡供电则由独立750W电源负责，笔记本机身完全不承担显卡供电任务，且机身底盖因线缆干扰无法正常闭合，需用泡沫材料垫高以维持散热，          性能表现方面，得益于RX 7900 XT提供的20GB显存容量，在开启Vulkan后端及Flash Attention后，该系统在运行Qwen3.6 27B模型时，其生成速度稳定在55-60token/秒。    即便在10万（100K）token的超长上下文窗口下，凭借显卡20GB的显存容量，依然能够稳定输出。     不过，老旧平台的短板也在此次实验中显露无遗，由于10万token的长上下文对系统内存的要求极高，笔记本原有的16GB系统内存已经被完全占满。         且由于当前内存市场价格波动，该玩家暂时没有升级更大容量内存的计划，同时因为维护难度和内存限制，目前该核心组件已经搬迁至一台低成本的AM4台式机平台。

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